DAILY UPDATE: The gloves are still off - The war is widening. Phase Two now underway.

The spice must flow.

This is no longer some neat little regional skirmish for television anchors to whisper about in polished studios. This is a real war, with real missiles, real fire, real smoke, and real money on the line. Iran is lashing out across the region, the Americans are piling in harder, Israel is pounding targets day and night, the UAE is now openly in it, Bahrain is stepping forward, Saudi Arabia is intercepting missiles, and everybody with a coastline, an oil terminal, or a major airport is suddenly paying very close attention.

And while the missiles fly, here is the part a lot of people miss: the oil is still flowing.

Ships are still transiting the Red Sea. Tankers are still moving cargo. Some of those loads are not small potatoes either. You are talking about oil cargoes worth $300 million, $400 million, and in some cases, when you add the vessel, refined products, timing, and exposure, you are staring at risk that can push toward a billion dollars in value on the water.

That is the dirty little secret of global trade. The system does not stop just because men with missiles start behaving like lunatics. It keeps moving, right up until the price of danger becomes too high. And that is where marine insurance comes in.

The real killer is not always the missile. It is the insurance bill. It is the war-risk premium. It is the cost of sending a ship, crew, cargo, and steel hull through a corridor where one drone, one rocket, one mine, or one bad decision can turn a profitable voyage into a floating fireball and an international legal nightmare. As long as insurers will write the risk and shipowners think they can still make money, the oil keeps moving. That is why the market has not frozen yet.

But remember this well: yet is doing a lot of work in that sentence.

The oil is still flowing today. The ships are still moving today. The insurers are still calculating today. But if this war keeps widening, if the strikes intensify, if enough hulls get hit, if enough underwriters decide the math no longer works, then the game changes very fast. And when that day comes, it will not be the talking heads who feel it first. It will be the world economy.

Just remember that. The missiles may be loud, but sometimes the loudest shock comes later, when the shipping lanes are still open in theory, but nobody sane can afford to use them.

DAILY UPDATE

The UAE now says it is at war with the Islamic Republic. Bahrain is entering the fight. Saudi Arabia is intercepting missiles. Azerbaijan is edging closer. The U.S. is surging more carrier power into the region, and Israel keeps hammering command centers, airports, bases, and regime infrastructure.

The IRGC continues losing senior figures left, right, and center. hard to believe anyone is in charge or communicating with the field.

And now the big number: over 3,000 targets struck in the first week of Operation Epic Fury.

Iran

The IRGC continues to lose senior leadership and key officials across multiple fronts.
Akbar Gafari, described as a top intelligence figure who had just risen to number one, was reportedly eliminated by Israel.
Mushtaba, son of Ali K., was reportedly targeted, seriously wounded, and still alive.
Multiple members of Iran’s armed forces and at least one IRGC member reportedly defected and publicly thanked President Trump for helping the Iranian people.
The regime is described as fractured and increasingly decentralized, with rogue commanders launching attacks without clear central control.
Tehran saw heavy strikes, street chaos, smoke across large sections of the city, and repeated attacks on police stations, security headquarters, IRGC bases, and command facilities.
Mehabad Airport in Tehran was hit again, reportedly for the third straight day.
A police headquarters in Hamadan was flattened.
A command headquarters in Islamshahr was heavily hit.
A major training base south of Tehran used for Shiite militants and Palestinian-linked fighters was destroyed.
Kish Island airport was struck after the IRGC reportedly used the island for military purposes.
Bushehr headquarters in southern Iran was destroyed by the United States.
Command centers in Oromieh/Orumiyeh were devastated, with aftermath footage showing broad destruction.
Major strikes also hit Esfahan, including air defense capabilities near the airport.
Iran’s leadership publicly claimed it would stop attacking neighbors, but attacks on Dubai, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia reportedly continued anyway.
The regime is described as losing military structure, internal coordination, and its ability to control events.

United States

The United States is described as increasingly aggressive and proactive in the war.
A third aircraft carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush, is now on its way to the Middle East, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford.
U.S. participation is framed as both defensive and offensive, supporting joint operations with Israel.
U.S. fighter jets are targeting Iranian air defense systems, including in Esfahan.
U.S. forces struck Kish Island airport.
U.S. forces destroyed headquarters in Bushehr.
Central Command stated that over 3,000 targets were struck in the first week of Operation Epic Fury.
The U.S. approved a $152 million emergency weapons sale to Israel, including 1,000-pound bombs and systems compatible with JDAM guidance kits.
A senior U.S. official reportedly said the second phase of the war has now begun and is expected to last 12 to 14 days.
President Trump stated that Iran had apologized and surrendered to Middle East neighbors, but the transcript says Iran resumed attacks anyway.
Trump also signaled that previously avoided targets may now be under consideration, implying a broader target set ahead.
The White House reportedly declared that the United States will get Iran’s oil out of the hands of the regime.

Israel

Israel continues major air and intelligence operations inside Iran.
Israel and the U.S. are described as jointly striking airports, command centers, police infrastructure, air defenses, and regime security structures.
Israel reportedly eliminated senior IRGC and intelligence figures.
Israeli officials confirmed that Mushtaba was seriously injured but still alive.
Israel warned civilians within 16 kilometers of the Fordow nuclear facility to evacuate immediately.
Israeli strikes appear focused not just on killing leadership, but on dismantling the regime’s infrastructure so it cannot carry out future crackdowns.
Northern Israel, especially around Haifa, came under missile and rocket threat.

United Arab Emirates

The UAE has now confirmed it is at war with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iranian drones reportedly struck Dubai International Airport.
The 23 Marina Tower in Dubai was reportedly struck by an Iranian drone.
Emirati air defense systems are actively intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles.
Emirati fighter jets are airborne and shooting down Iranian drones and loitering munitions.
President Mohammed bin Zayed reportedly declared that the UAE will fulfill its duty to defend the country, its people, and its residents.
The UAE’s position is framed as both national defense and defense of its role as a safe haven for residents, expats, and investors.

Bahrain

Bahrain has effectively entered the war.
Missiles are now reportedly being launched from Bahrain into Iran.
Bahrain had previously been targeted by Iranian strikes.
The battlefield is now expanding beyond defense into direct participation.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia was attacked again by Iranian ballistic missiles.
The Saudi defense ministry said two ballistic missiles aimed at Prince Sultan Air Base were intercepted and destroyed.
Saudi Arabia is now firmly part of the active regional defense picture.

Qatar

Qatar remains under threat from Iranian regional attacks.
Earlier regional attacks on Qatar are referenced as part of the broader Iranian escalation against Arab neighbors.

Kuwait

Kuwait is not the focus of this update, but remains part of the wider regional threat environment described in the earlier reports.

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan has been attacked multiple times by Iran.
Azerbaijan has already moved artillery to the Iranian border.
Azerbaijani officials are speaking with Israel and preparing to join the attacks if needed.
Azerbaijan has not entered the war yet, but is described as ready to act if Iran strikes again.

Turkey

Iran reportedly attacked Turkey two or three times, then stopped.
The explanation given is that the IRGC realized it was not a good idea to escalate further with Turkey.
Turkey is described as quiet for now.

Lebanon

Hezbollah launched rockets toward Haifa in northern Israel.
The rockets were described as easier for Israel to handle than Iranian ballistic threats, with Iron Dome expected to deal with them.
Lebanon remains part of the active proxy front against Israel.

United Kingdom

The UK is described as politically paralyzed and institutionally ineffective.
Britain announced that HMS Dragon would be sent to protect air bases in Cyprus.
That deployment has reportedly been delayed because repairs are only being done during standard 9-to-5 working hours.
Trade union restrictions and bureaucracy are portrayed as crippling Britain’s response during wartime.
The UK is framed as being in a political and military coma while others act.

Iraq

Iraq is part of the wider network of Iranian proxy activity and regional attacks.

Fordow / Nuclear front

Fordow is now under direct threat.
Israelis warned people within 16 kilometers of the facility to evacuate.
This signals that major strikes on core nuclear infrastructure may be next.

Regional / Multi-country picture

The war is expanding from an Israel-U.S. campaign into a broader regional conflict.
The UAE is now openly at war.
Bahrain has joined the fight.
Saudi Arabia is under attack and intercepting missiles.
Azerbaijan is moving toward possible direct action.
Turkey has been tested, then left alone.
Hezbollah is still firing from Lebanon.
Iran is increasingly described as leaderless, decentralized, and lashing out in every direction.
The strategy from the anti-Iran side appears to be twofold:
- destroy leadership
- destroy the regime’s physical infrastructure so it cannot recover or suppress an uprising
The transcript frames this as the opening of a new and harder phase of the war, with Phase Two now underway.