The are again signs that Russia might be preparing a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Against a backdrop of growing troop numbers on the border between the two countries, Moscow has also insisted that there can be no further NATO enlargement into the former Soviet Union – a demand already rejected by the Western Alliance. Obviously, many view all this as a bluff and argue that the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, would not order an attack. Others are not so sure, especially given the recent Russian position on NATO. So, will Russia really invade?
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Following the end of the Cold War, tensions emerged between Russia and Ukraine. While some of these were apparently resolved – such as the issue of nuclear weapons and the Soviet fleet – other issues remained, most notably the question of Ukraine’s strategic direction. While it became a founder and participating state in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), many wanted to pursue EU and NATO membership. This came to a head in 2014, when the pro-Russian president was deposed. Asa. result, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea and instigated a separatist conflict in the east of the country – known as the Donbas. However, while a ceasefire was reached, a peace deal has never been signed. Instead, relations have continued to deteriorate. This has led Russia to take an increasingly assertive position on Ukraine, including the possibility of it joining NATO. It’s against this backdrop, that fears have been growing that Russia may now be preparing a “further invasion”. But this would carry risks and high consequences. But are those risks and consequences so high as to ensure that Russia will not attack?
