Ukraine’s pathway to NATO membership will take a long time. If we lived in an alternate universe where membership was immediate, then Ukraine would be in a much better position. However, there is a consolation prize to be had. The longer the expected wait to NATO membership, the better a deal Ukraine should be able to extract out of Russia in the present. This video explores the coercive bargaining logic, with a healthy dose of lines on maps.0:00 Ukraine’s NATO Membership Bid1:54 What Russia and Ukraine Are Really Fighting Over6:50 The Current Strategic Environment8:30 When Will Ukraine Be Able to Join NATO?13:08 How Much Territory Can Ukraine Retain?17:29 How the Trump Administration Should Handle Peace Talks