The Russian invasion of 2022 began with a multi-pronged winter invasion of Ukrainian territory. After a series of reverses in late 2022, the Russian effort to reclaim the initiative in Ukraine seems to have begun…with another multi-pronged winter offensive. In this episode, I look at the way that offensive has played out, what observations and lessons might come out of the last three months, and what that may mean for the war to come. Also we’re going to talk about the shovels story, because we have to do better than that.Patreon:https://www.patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats & Corrections: As a video covering military matters – be aware that the fog of war is much thicker on this issue that it is with things like economics and finance. As such – I’d advise attaching a responsible level of certainty to any of the ideas put forward here. For example, the use of artillery deployed mines at Vuhledar is widely reported – but has not been confirmed by any on-the-ground figures. I also want to point out that when I talk about the Ukrainian military being opened to lessons learned – that’s a relative statement (with the point of comparison being Russia). It’s also true that all militaries need to put in place systems of discipline and due process, so it’s important to take published commentary, complaints and theorising into context – understand that it’s not all that’s being said, it’s just the sample that makes it into the public sphere.Sources & Reading:Vuhledar Satelite Imagery:https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/sta…Strelkov on the offensive:https://twitter.com/wartranslated/sta…https://wartranslated.com/i-girking-f…Khodakovsky on ammo and Vuhledar:https://twitter.com/wartranslated/sta…Muradov Promotionhttps://twitter.com/RALee85/status/16…Kyiv independent on Bakhmut:https://kyivindependent.com/national/…https://kyivindependent.com/national/…Comentary on RU Assault unit tactics:https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/st…https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/sta…(Tatrigami’s channel is generally worth looking at https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA)Commentary on potential lessons learned in the UA Army:By Lieutenant Colonel Glen Granthttps://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/sta…Visually confirmed loss data and graphics:Oryx:https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02…War Mapper:https://twitter.com/War_Mapper?ref_sr…Warspotting:https://ukr.warspotting.net/Jomini of the Westhttps://twitter.com/JominiWMapping per deepstatemap:https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/47.75…Credit as always to Dimitri at Wartranslatedhttps://twitter.com/wartranslated/sta…How the ebattle for the Donbas shaped Ukraine’s success https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/12/…Casualties of 14th Spetznaz Colonel Sergey Polyakovhttps://twitter.com/RALee85/status/16…Kofman on the winter offensive:https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/sta…Shoigu visit to Muradov:https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/sta…Russian official commenting on Bakhmuthttps://www.reuters.com/world/europe/…Timestamps:00:00:00 — INTRO00:00:57 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT00:01:59 — SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS00:03:02 — BEFORE THE WINTER00:04:12 — The Surovikin Strategy?00:05:52 — Pressure Applied & Received00:07:28 — The New(old) Boss00:08:20 — Ukraine Secedes The Initiative00:08:55 — WINTER OFFENSIVE00:11:08 — OVERVIEW OF THE OFFENSIVE00:12:39 — A Sense Of Perspective00:15:36 — WINTER BATTLEFIELDS00:16:02 — Kherson00:17:25 — Luhansk00:18:12 — Svatove-Kreminna00:19:21 — Kupyansk00:19:43 — Donetsk00:20:54 — Avdiivka00:22:56 — Marinka00:25:00 — Bakhmut00:31:06 — Vuhledar00:37:05 — Culture Can Kill00:38:36 — OBSERVATIONS00:39:52 — Shovels And Sticks00:44:49 — Attacking Fortified Positions Is Difficult00:46:12 — Entrenchments & Defensive Tactics00:47:17 — Certain Systems Have Been Noteworthy00:49:06 — Changing Force Quality00:50:53 — EVOLVING TACTICS & FORCES00:53:45 — Ukraine’s Lessons00:57:15 — EVALUATION & WHAT NEXT00:59:24 — The Russian Costs And Gains01:02:35 — Implications For Ukraine01:05:37 — Was There An Alternative?01:06:38 — Losses & Force (re)generation01:07:21 — CONCLUSIONS01:08:44 — CHANNEL UPDATE