After a year of hard fighting there are a rush of observers trying to make sense of the current balance of power in Ukraine. The focus in often on (often small) movements in the frontlines, casualties, or the performance of particular platforms and systems. Those things matter, but wars are not generally fought to take individual trenches or solely to inflict casualties. They are fought for strategic objectives.In this episode I dig into Russia’s history of Empire, its modern strategic objectives, and try to assess whether or not the war in Ukraine represents a success or failure by Russia’s own chosen metrics (as far as they can be determined). My suggestion is that in repeating a number of the mistakes previously made by leaders of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union, it can be argued that Putin has already condemned the Russian federation to a strategic reverse. What remains to be seen, is whether Ukraine can win a victory from Russia’s defeat, or if it will be left to lose as well.