For nearly seven months, the war in Ukraine was not really regarded as a genuine war by the Russian government. The fighting would be done not by a fully mobilised Russian force, but by regular units, mercenaries, and Donbass conscripts – Russia’s own conscripts would stay at home. But after seven months the result of that complacency was a crushing shortage of manpower to feed Russian frontline units. Ukrainian mobilisation had made good manpower losses and allowed the formation of entirely new units – while the Russian regular army, still undoubtedly a powerful force, found itself overstretched and forced to trust sections of the front to proxies or Rosgvardia. The results of that policy were obvious during the Kharkiv offensive. Now, Russia has decided to double down and recommit to war. Announcing mobilisation, enacting stop-loss, and ‘annexing’ parts of Ukraine. In this video, I explore why, how it’s going, and what the implication may be.