Discussions of escalation management in Ukraine are usually framed from a Western perspective and the incremental provision of aid by Ukraine’s allies. But as the war carries on Moscow faces escalation dilemmas of its own. It has an imperative to escalate in ways that place as much pressure on Ukraine as possible, but often attempts to do so prompt responses from Ukraine’s allies that put Russia in a worse place than when it started.Today, we look at four recent Russian lines of escalation and effort in Ukraine, from the Kharkiv offensive to the new partnership agreement with North Korea. We ask what the logic might have been behind those moves, what the effect has been, and ask the question….will they improve Russia’s position or leave it at greater risk than before.
Russian Escalation Strategy in Ukraine – The North Korean Deal, Kharkiv & Putin’s “Ceasefire” demand
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