Here, Russia has suddenly stepped up efforts its efforts to seize the Donbas by launching a new offensive wave—in a new escalation throwing forcibly mobilized Ukrainians from the territories under Russian control. Despite public claims of openness to peace, this brutal move serves as Putin’s outright rejection of the latest U.S. peace plan and his deeper commitment to prolonging the war at any cost.Russian forces have launched a new offensive wave toward Dobropillia, attempting to break through the Ukrainian defensive line and revive earlier plans to encircle Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Kostiantynivka. Russian forces northeast of Pokrovsk are assaulting in several directions simultaneously, including a push southwest toward Rodynske aimed at restoring a pincer maneuver against Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Naval infantry units have also resumed attacks southeast of Dobropillia in the direction of Sofiivka. Ukrainian forces continue counterattacking at the base of the salient, blunting Russian attempts to advance north. Ukrainian observers report that elements of Russia’s army have been forced to take defensive positions to stabilize their lines rather than try to advance. Despite the intensity of the Russian offensive, no confirmed territorial gains have been recorded. Meanwhile, Ukraine notes a disturbing pattern among surrendered Russian soldiers: roughly one in six turns out to be a forcibly mobilized Ukrainian from the Russian-controlled territories. According to Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters, over 46,000 Ukrainian citizens have already been conscripted by Russia from occupied regions, who are unsurprisingly surrendering at a high rate. Importantly, Russia launched the attacks immediately before the start of US-mediated peace talks, purposefully escalating to push Ukraine to respond in kind, which will be presented to the US as an excuse to cancel negotiations. On top of that, Putin has declared the entire Ukrainian government a criminal organization, framing it as illegitimate to preemptively sabotage any diplomatic process even more. While some Western and Russian commentators argued that Moscow might be seeking a way out of the war, Putin’s rhetoric and battlefield behavior demonstrate a completely the opposite intent. Putin does not want an end to the war, partly because he fears the consequences of returning hundreds of thousands of convicts, mercenaries, and marginalized fighters to civilian life, where unemployment and insecurity could destabilize Russia internally. He also understands that shifting from a wartime economy to a civilian one would cause a painful economic correction and expose the regime to public discontent over reconstruction costs in occupied territories. For Putin, maintaining a permanent war is preferable to facing the political risks of peace. At this point, only two outcomes serve his interests: a slow, grinding conflict that sustains the regime, or a complete victory culminating in the destruction of Ukrainian statehood. Judging by the clear attempts to sabotage the talks, the new American 28-point peace plan does not please Putin, despite it mirroring Russia’s own demands and representing a structured Ukrainian capitulation. The plan calls for Ukraine’s permanent cession of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and almost entire Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions; a cap on the size of the military, and a ban on Western military alliances and military presence. Putin rejected the peace talks with his actions, exposing that even such generous terms are not enough for him, and he never intended to stop at Donbas and where he is now in the south. This clearly demonstrates that Russia’s claimed acceptable terms have been just a façade all this time, created with an intent to fool the West that there is a prospect for peace to deter military aid. American officials are repeatedly falling into the same pattern of assuming Russia seeks compromise when it demonstrably does not, until its maximalist goals of taking Odessa, connecting with Transnistria and capturing Kyiv to restore the Kyiv Rus are not achieved. In spite of the provocations, Zelensky unexpectedly agreed to at least discuss the new American plan, catching Moscow off guard. The Ukrainian office understands that the negotiations are a clear bluff, and that the best way to expose Russia in the eyes of the West is to go along until Russians themselves start to stall and search for…
Putin kills US peace plan, calls Ukrainian government illegitimate, launches new offensive
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