The Kinetic phase of Israel and Iran’s recent war ended almost as suddenly as it began. US intervention was followed with a call for a ceasefire, a demonstrative missile attack by Iran, and then (after some very emphatic social media diplomacy) a ceasefire.In this episode I want to take stock of what we’ve learned over the last week and the status of Iran’s remaining nuclear infrastructure.What I also want to do though is focus on some observations not about the nuclear side of this war, but the impacts of the conventional one.Iran’s model of deterrence clearly failed – and in this episode I ask whether consistent under-investment in the regular military and its Air and Air-Defence at the expense of the IRGC and its Ballistic Missiles and proxies mean that Tehran helped hand the Israelis rapid air superiority, and how that may shape the strategic balance and any negotiations in the days and weeks to come.

Iran & Israel: From Escalation to Ceasefire – Nuclear Unknowns, Lessons & Iran’s Strategic Handicap
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