Day 248: October 29In the Donetsk region, the Russians have been gaining some ground lately, and even though their progress here is extremely slow, the importance of this direction is hard to overestimate. The Ukrainians have only four main positions in front of Donetsk City that stop the front line from collapsing: New York, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, and Marinka. If the Russians establish control over any of these positions, it will be a complete catastrophe because the strength of fortifications that the Ukrainians managed to develop here over eight years is simply incomparable to anything else. This is the reason why Russian progress here has been so slow, and this is also the reason why the Russians are trying to develop their offensive operation here in between these strongholds.One of the biggest frontline bases is in Avdiivka. The Russians do not even try to storm it in front. Instead, they are trying to encircle Avdiivka from two sides: through Verkhnotorestske and Pisky, although it has not been clear where exactly they are planning to close the circle up until recently.The Russians tried to storm Pisky several weeks after Verkhnotoretske. Unlike Verkhnotoretske, Pisky is located on the outskirts of Donets, so holding this position has always been incredibly hard, which is why Ukrainian positions here have been fortified exceptionally well. The Russians faced unimaginable resistance and did not manage to advance even an inch. However, this is precisely where the biggest problems are coming from right now.In preparation for the counteroffensive in the Kherson region, the Ukrainians made a huge mistake. They moved too many artillery systems out of the region, the Russians noted the absence of counterbattery fire and exploited the temporary weakness to the fullest. Even though, in a few days, the Ukrainians had fixed the problem, the Russians had already managed to gain a foothold in Pisky and were slowly developing their offensive operation.During the first week of September, the Russians consolidated control over the southern part of Pisky. During the second and third weeks, the fights took place in the northern part of Pisky and near the bridge that is located between Pisky and Pevomaiske. The Russians leveraged their newly gained positions in the southern part, moved in their thermobaric multiple-launch rocket systems to burned everything down in the northern part of Pisky, and by October, they seemed to have established control over these regions.From here, the fights shifted towards Nevelske, Pervomaiske, Vodiane, and Opytne. The progress was non-linear: the Ukrainians would frequently launch counterattacks, there were some pauses in mid-September due to significant Russian defeats in the Kharkiv region, and the Russians had also tried to shift focus several times and attack Khasnohorivka.The latest reports suggest that these tactics slowly brought the Russians some results because today, they are already fighting in Vodiane. The Russians announced that their goal here was to establish control over Tonenke. By establishing control over Totneke and Krasnohorivka, which they have also been assaulting, although without success, the Russians will put Avdiivka in operation encirclement, and the Ukrainians there will have three options: conduct a counteroffensive, retreat, or die fighting.The Russians have already penetrated the primary defense line, which is Pisky. They are penetrating the secondary defense line, which is Vodiane and Opytne, and even according to Ukrainian sources, they continue to have some limited success. The situation here slowly becomes very dangerous, and the Ukrainians might need to increase the protection of this area even at the expense of their offensive operation somewhere else because if the Russians get access to the rear of Avdiivka, it will be very hard to push them out. Russian artillery and aviation are very active here and can quickly shut down any counteroffensive. That is why it is essential not to let the Russians penetrate the secondary line of Ukrainian defense.If you are against the invasion of Ukraine and want to support the work that I am doing, consider making a purchase in the online store UA Supporter. Here you can find a lot of products with Ukrainian symbols, to not only show your support for this channel, but also for Ukraine.