27 Jan: Russian Attack Plan TURNS UPSIDE DOWN | War in Ukraine Explained

General

Day 338: January 27Today there is some good news. In the Vuhledar area, the Ukrainians capitalized on their yesterday’s counterattack and developed their success further. The Russians were pushed from the city along multiple vectors, and right now, the Ukrainians are preparing for a decisive push in the countryside. Losing it would mean that the Russian offensive completely failed, and they would need to start from scratch, but without the element of surprise.Last time I told you that the Russians took control of the countryside south of Vuhledar, burnt the hospital buildings on the corner of the city using thermobaric artillery, and then, under cover of smoke and supporting fire, entered the city. I also told you that the Ukrainians conducted a counterattack and crushed Russian flanks from the north. The counterattack was successful, the Ukrainians established control over half of the countryside and completely immobilized the Russians. The latest reports suggest that the Russians initially planned to assault the city at night, but because they were now forced to engage in positional fights, the plan was disrupted, and they stayed in one place. The Ukrainians took advantage of the situation and reinforced Vuhledar even more. As a result, Russian sources started reporting that assaulting Ukrainian positions became infeasible. One source claimed that the concentration is higher than 3 companies per 1 km. Ukrainian artillery has also adjusted and is engaging in counterbattery combat, as well as the support of the infantry near the city. For example, due to heavy fire and the infeasibility of developing an offensive operation, the Russians have reportedly abandoned the hospital and even the southern countryside. This countryside is comprised of around two dozen sparsely located houses, and given the winter conditions, there is simply no place to hide.In order to reduce the supply and support of the main assault group that is still maintaining a presence in the northern countryside, Ukrainian artillery is targeting the areas of forces concentrations in Pavlivka, Mykilske, and other settlements. Some sources suggest that the Ukrainians also used HIMARS to target warehouses with equipment tens of kilometers behind the zero line in order to prevent further escalation of the Russian offensive. So far, the Ukrainians managed to break the momentum, undermine the stability of Russian positions that they wanted to use to develop their offensive, and ensured that the city was under full Ukrainian control. This is the third day in a row where the Ukrainian General Staff is reporting around 800 Russians killed per day. And although the number concerns the whole front line, it has significantly increased since the Russians launched their attacks in the Zaporizhzhia region. If the Ukrainians manage to push the Russians out of this northern countryside, it will be a complete failure for the Russians, and they will need to abort the mission.

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