Day 369: February 28The Ukrainians have been bracing in anticipation of a massive Russian attack the whole week because the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate leaked some information that suggested that Putin gave the order to carry out a certain plan of strategic significance.As noted by the Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, a massive attack right now would make sense – we have just reached the first year of the war mark, so this would be perfect timing to try to make up for their last year’s defeats and defuse the tension inside Russia. In fact, as alluded to in previous reports, the Russians have deployed a substantial number of forces to the north of Ukraine, in particular in the Bryansk, Oriol, Kursk, and Belgorod regions. What caused a lot of concern is that, according to many sources, the Russians are massing 700 aircraft for the attack. That is why many analysts started researching the possibility of a new type of attack – one where the Russians are exploiting their air superiority to the fullest extent.The main idea is that the Russians launch several waves of swarms of drones to identify and destroy Ukrainian air defense, combine it with a massive missile strike to take out Ukrainian logistics and command posts, and then they would conduct massive bombings of all Ukrainian defense systems and fortifications. Once the way is cleared, the Russians should be able to penetrate Ukrainian positions tens of kilometers deep and maybe even reach the Dnipro River.Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesman has recently commented on this scenario and essentially said that this would be a suicide operation, which would end up with a virtually complete demilitarization of the Russian Air Force. He said that something like that could potentially happen on a smaller scale without Russian aviation reaching far behind the front line, but even in the case where the Russians are less aggressive, the Ukrainians have the means to inflict heavy losses to Russian aviation.First of all, when it comes to the pre-emptive drone attack, controllable small drones and plane-like UAVs can be easily intercepted. The Ukrainians have a lot of mobile Electronic Warfare systems that are designed for early detection of enemy UAVs and complete blocking of data, control, and navigation signals. One of the most popular systems used in Ukraine is Bukovel-AD, which is capable of detecting aerial objects at a distance of up to 15 km and blocking control at 10 km. Secondly, the Ukrainians also have a more powerful system Anklav that has an effective reach of up to 40 km. However, this one is stationary and is mainly used around the bases. So, effective reconnaissance deep behind the front line is virtually impossible, and the only way to identify Ukrainian air defense is by sending uncontrollable pre-programmed kamikaze drones. Here, the Russians would also face a ton of problems because, firstly, the Ukrainians have adapted to the constant drone strikes and have created mobile anti-drone units that are shooting them down from a machine gun. So, only those drones that operate at a higher altitude have a great chance of becoming the target of and exposing Ukrainian air defense. The last option is to use a surveillance jet, A-50U. This jet has an advanced radar that is capable to guide bombers to anti-aircraft weapons. This is also exactly the same aircraft that was destroyed in Belarus yesterday. It was revealed that local Belorussian anti-government activists had used modified commercial drones and ambushed the Machulishchy air base, and fled the country. Two drones managed to deliver a direct hit and destroyed the frontal and central parts of this 330 million-dollar aircraft. Now, this is an extremely important development because the Russians had only 6 such aircraft, and now they are down to 5. In the case of a massive aerial attack, the Russians would need them to operate close to the fronts continuously. Its radar can reliably detect surface targets maximum at a range of 300 kilometers, so with each successful Russian step, they would be required to get closer and closer to the outer edge of the bulge to continue using their aviation effectively and increase the risk of losing this aircraft significantly. Since there are only 5 of those left, this option is off the shelf.