Day 368: February 26Last time I told you that the Russians concentrated their assault units to the north of Bakhmut in order to take control over the last settlements on the line before the weather conditions deteriorated. The situation in Berkhivka was very dire, and the Russians managed to push the Ukrainians out of this village after 1 day of additional clashes. The situation around Yahidne was more stable, and the Ukrainians here had even conducted a successful counterattack, but, unfortunately, with the fall of Berkhivka, the defense line quickly fell apart. The Russians managed to overwhelm the Ukrainians with fire by opening additional lines of attack and eventually capturing Yahidne. After that, they basically put the Ukrainians near the train station into a salient, so the Ukrainians were forced to step back from this position as well.In order to slow down the Russians, the Ukrainians have blown up a small dam on the outskirts of Bakhmut. The release of the water flooded the streets between Ukrainian- and Russian-controlled territories and also cut off some Russian positions from the mainland, which in the short term diminished their room for maneuver. The Ukrainians here got very unlucky because the Russians managed to achieve their tactical goals during the last day of the suitable for massive assaults weather. As you can see from the video, the Ukrainians blew up the dam when it already started raining. The video was filmed in the morning when it was still cold, so there was a mixture of snow and rain. But recent videos from Bakhmut clearly show that the snow has almost entirely melted because around a week ago, everything was still white.The latest developments mean that there are no Ukrainian fortifications between Russian positions and the last highway leading out of Bakhmut. There are several smaller roads between this highway and Ivanivske, but they are going through the fields, and with the current weather, the chance of getting stuck is very high. One of the things the Ukrainians can do is to capitalize on their recent gains in the forest near Ivanivske and continue pushing the Russians further south. This should give them more room for withdrawal by using the highway to get to Ivanivske, and once they reach Ivaniske, they would still need to go through the fields because the bridge is destroyed, but these fields should be easier to cross because they are located the higher ground and, therefore, should be drier.When it comes to Bakhmut itself, it looks like the Ukrainians are finishing their withdrawal from the eastern bank. Yesterday, the group was finally split into two small groups. As predicted, one group is slowly withdrawing via the northern bridge and another one via the dam. Some sources even suggest that the Russians already control the whole residential area with small houses and one of the two high-rise building areas.When it comes to the number of troops left, Russian sources suggest that they are expecting to capture up to 20 thousand Ukrainian soldiers. However, this number is based on the assumption that all the brigades that are involved in the defense of Bakhmut are in full force and are all inside Bakhmut, which is not true at all. Each brigade is represented by only a few elements, while most troops are kept out of Bakhmut for rotation purposes. According to the military-affiliated spokesmen, there are no more than 5 thousand troops in Bakhmut, and given that this report is outdated, at the moment, the Ukrainians likely have even fewer troops. This is not unlikely because during the Battle for Severodonetsk, there were only 2500 soldiers holding the city, and at the final stages, it took the Ukrainians only 600 troops to defend most of the industrial zone. And Sieverodonetsk is almost exactly the size of Bakhmut, which makes for a fair comparison. The estimated number of troops suggests that the city is not overcrowded, and withdrawal remains an option. But the deteriorating weather conditions make the whole situation tricky because, on the one hand, it is unlikely that the Russians will be able to establish full control over the roads, but on the other hand, it makes it very hard to use the remaining roads in the fields. But very soon, we will see how the Ukrainians decide to act under the current circumstances.