Day 364: February 22As we approach the anniversary of the war, we can clearly observe that something big is happening behind the scenes. Both parties are determined to crush each other during the second year of the war, and we can already see the undergoing cardinal changes that will lay the ground for the next year. Ukrainian Military announced that they are prepared for what the Institute for the Study of War called the most dangerous course of action.The most dangerous course of action for Ukraine is opening a second front with Belarus because, at the moment, most Ukrainian troops are fighting in the east, making the northern front very vulnerable. Right now, the Ukrainians have only 15 thousand troops or 4 brigades defending the border with Belarus – one for each region. The length of the front line is around 450 km, implying that each Battalion Tactical Group is responsible for 28 km of the front, which is quite sparse.In order to compensate for the inadequate density, the Ukrainians are building many lines of fortifications. Fortunately, the geography of the region favors the Ukrainians a lot. Firstly, if we switch to the satellite view, we can see that northern Ukraine is covered in forests that stretch 120 km south. Secondly, if we look at the map of the Institute for the Study of War, we can see that northern Ukraine also has a lot of rivers. The Ukrainians have also built a wall along the border, set up observation posts for better control, and also dug a ditch. The next defense line is located approximately 3 km behind, and all the area in between is densely mined. The second and third lines of defense already have fortified firing positions powerful enough to force the attackers to stop for at least some time. So, as you can see, the Ukrainians take the threat seriously. Ukrainian Intelligence continues to estimate that the danger is present, and it is very easy to see if we draw parallels between what had been happening recently and one year ago.9 months prior to the invasion, Russia had started amassing troops near Ukrainian borders and raising their combat readiness under the guise of military training. Similarly, for the last 9 months, Belarus has been conducting extensive joint training with Russian forces, continuously prolonging them. 4 months prior to the invasion, Russia had amassed around 100 thousand troops near the Ukrainian border. Similarly, for the last 4 months, Belarus had been continuously training more than 100 thousand mobilized soldiers. Some sources indicate that the last batch has finished its training and has been evenly deployed along the whole northeastern front, but what many Ukrainian analysts are urging to take into account is that in this particular region there is a very convenient railway connection that allows the Russians to redeploy back to Belarus in a matter of 2 or 3 days.2 weeks before the invasion, Western embassies urged their citizens to leave Ukraine and Russia as soon as possible. Several days ago, Western embassies asked their citizens to leave Belarus as soon as possible.1 day before the invasion, after meeting with the separatist leaders, Putin acknowledged the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as independent states and announced that Russia was going to join them in trying to help. Similarly, the Belorussian president recently met with Putin, agreed to strengthen their military ties, and also urged other former soviet states to pick a side.On the day of the invasion, Putin announced that the current Ukrainian government and military should cease to exist, while the West stood up in support of Ukraine. Similarly, during a recent TV address, Putin vowed to achieve these goals, while the West reassured that Ukraine would never be a victory for Russia.So, right now, we can observe the unfolding of almost the same events, all of which, unfortunately, point in the direction of escalation. Although, there is one crucial difference – 7 days before the invasion, the Russians started collecting a lot of blood, which is the most critical step before an offensive operation. No such thing was observed in Belarus. That is why for now, it looks like Putin will try to make his allies join the war gradually. At the moment, the Russians are experiencing massive problems with the production of equipment: from uniforms to tanks. Belarus has already agreed to help Russia produce Su-25 fighter jets. Other countries will likely receive military contracts soon as well. So far, Belarus is probably the most integrated state with Russia, but many analysts still think that the earliest Belarus may join the war is at the end of 2023.