Day 363: February 21Today the big news is coming from the south. Here, after a series of losses, the Russians realized that their forces were exhausted, so they organized a huge reinforcement of fresh troops and tanks and even started relocating Wagner forces from Bakhmut to Vuhledar. However, it looks like the Ukrainians have finally received long-range missiles and immediately took an opportunity to make sure that they never get to the front. Last time I told you that the Ukrainians conducted a massively successful counterattack and pushed the Russians all the way to Mykilske, essentially annihilating 100% of their progress over the last month. I also told you that the Russians tried to return back at least the residential area immediately, but their assault units were completely demolished. Many analysts expected that the Russians would take a few days to bomb this region, accumulate forces and try to push the Ukrainians out once again, however, this did not happen. Some sources reported engagements on the hills to the north, but they were insignificant. Later, it became clear that Russian forces in this region had simply been degraded to the point where conducting huge attacks was not an option. We could already observe these signs during their counterattack last time when some units retreated the moment something did not go according to their plan. But a decisive indicator became an announcement from the Mariupol mayor that the Russians were preparing to reinforce Vuhledar with 5 thousand more troops. He specified that they would be accompanied by 20 tanks T62.Simultaneously, local people started publishing footage of buses in Mariupol, which were escorted by cars with Wagner forces insignia. After that Ukrainian Melitopol mayor reported that 43 busses full of Wagner troops were being relocated from Donbas to Zaporizhzhia, and it is expected that they will substitute the degraded marine brigade near Vuhledar. Although 43 busses are much less 5 thousand troops, it is possible that they would be sent with the elements of the regular Russian army.But it seems like not every one of them will get to the front. Today a series of huge explosions were reported on the outskirts of Mariupol. The Russians have turned Mariupol into a big base where they keep a lot of troops and supplies. But Mariupol is located 75 km away from Vuhledar, which means that HIMARS should have got really close to one of the most active front lines in order to make a shot. It is highly unlikely that the Ukrainians would have risked it, so at first, I thought it might have been sabotage. However, the latest Russian reports suggest that the Ukrainians have finally received GLSDB rockets, which can destroy targets located up to 150 km away. One Russian source said that at least one HIMARS crew has already received a package, which strongly indicated that a series of explosions on Russian bases in Mariupol were caused by these new long-range missiles.It looks like this is only the beginning. It took the Russians more than half a year to adjust to an 80 km range and push their logistical centers deeper inside their territories. So, with a sudden twofold extension of artillery range, Ukrainian artillery now has a lot of fresh targets. The biggest Russian problem is that they cannot afford to push their logistical centers even deeper. The Russians already have severe problems with bottleneck and short-term deficits due to the destruction of ammunition depots, and moving them further will exacerbate the problem even more, especially given that in many places, like in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the Ukrainians cover the whole territory.