Day 237: October 18In this video, I will focus on the Luhansk region and, in particular, on the northern part of the region. As the Ukrainians are successfully developing their offensive operation and gradually undermining Russian positions around Tavilzhanka, they have finally cut off the first Russian group in this region from supplies. The situation was so critical that the Russians were forced to shift from the defense mode to offense to prevent the front line from collapsing. And here is how it happened.Last time I told you that the Ukrainians had established partial control over Vilshana and had already breached some parts of the secondary defense line around Pershotravneve. Even though the Russians here have a lot of opportunities to use the local geography and establish multiple defense lines, their overall position here has already been undermined. By controlling this segment of the ravine between Vilshana and Pershotravneve, the Ukrainians could already develop their offensive towards Tokarivka. And the Russians here neither have an opportunity to cooperate nor strong positions on the way to Tokarivka. The Ukrainians are already constantly storming Vilshana and Pershotravneve, which necessarily fixes the positions of Russian forces. On top of that, while the Russians in Vilshana and Pershotravneve are busy, the Ukrainians can leverage the geography and move towards Tokarivka in the same way they moved towards Orlianka.As you can see, Russian positions along the Oskil River can be supplied via two roads: one that goes through Terny, and one that goes through Mykolaivka. The road that goes through Terny is much safer because it supplies the front from behind, while the road that goes through Mykkolivka is much more dangerous because it goes along the front line. The Ukrainians have already cut off Vishana from this safe supply road. The situation is very critical, and if the Russians do not solve the problem of supplying food and ammunition to that front, then it will collapse in a matter of days.And this is exactly why the Russians have launched an attack in the direction of Dvorichna. Their objective is to increase control over the region, ideally by pushing the Ukrainians to the other side of the Oskil River and securing the second supply road. The Russians are basically rebuilding their defense. If previously the southern part of Vilshana was the Russian flank, then now it is another front. But this is not enough. The Russians also need to transform Tavilzhanka into a local supply center, which is impossible if the Ukrainians are standing on the approach to this village.But this is not even the biggest problem for the Russians. The biggest problem is the vulnerability of the northern road to attacks. Right now the Russians in Tavilzhanka can still receive supplies from Torske. But when the Ukrainians advance a little bit further and establish fire control over this road, then they will be forced to use the northern road. As you can see, it goes along the forest, which means that there is a high risk of sabotage attacks and ambushes. Crossing the river here is not a problem, especially for small mobile groups. The Russians have already started to reinforce this region, so very soon, we can expect the fight here to break out as well and we will see the Russians push west while the Ukrainians simultaneously push east. Overall, in the short term, the Ukrainians are trying to cut off Vilshana from supplies, while the Russians are simultaneously trying to secure another road for supplies. And in the long term, the Ukrainians are trying to cut off the whole Tavilzhanka group from Torske, while the Russians are trying to ensure that they will be able to receive supplies from the northern road instead. This is why we can expect very heavy clashes close to Kamianka, because here, the northern road is the most vulnerable to attacks.If you are against the invasion of Ukraine and want to support the work that I am doing, consider making a purchase in the online store UA Supporter. Here you can find a lot of products with Ukrainian symbols, to not only show your support for this channel, but also for Ukraine.