Day 360: February 18After weeks of continuous attacks, the Russians established control over two villages in the northern part of the Luhansk region. These two villages are located in the forest and served as a bridgehead on the other side of the river that limited the ability of the Russians to advance towards Kupiansk. The reason why it took so long for the Russians to eliminate this bridgehead lies in the disposition of Ukrainian troops. As you can see, the Ukrainians are controlling a relatively big settlement on the western bank of the Oskil River, and since the river here is extremely narrow and the Ukrainians had plenty of time to create pontoon bridges, it was very easy to supply Ukrainians troops in Dvorichne and Hrianykivka, or even directly launch counterattacks from across the river. Right now, the Russians are slowly clearing the area around Lyman Pershyi. This process turned out to be extremely time-consuming as well because the middle of the forest is densely mined, and when they get to the outskirts, they become vulnerable to local counterattacks. At first glance, it may seem strange that the Russians are not launching an attack from the east as well, and all these actions may even look like a false attack towards Kupiansk, however, the inactivity can be purely explained by the lack of proper conditions. The main reason why the Russians are so focused on reaching Kupiansk from the north is that it will diminish the Ukrainians supply and support of the Kyslivka group. As you might still remember, the battle for the Kyskivka group was very intense and had multiple stages because the settlements here are located at a higher elevation and create a set of synergistic defenses. That is why the Russians are not attacking them yet. They have already advanced towards Synkivka, and once there are heavier engagements, as many Russian analysts are suggesting, the Russians will also open additional lines of attacks from Vilshana to assault Petropavlivka. Once the troops are fixed and the area becomes an active combat zone, Ukrainian defense in Kyslivka will start deteriorating. In fact, the Russians have significantly increased the intensity of shelling in this region. The same thing could be observed 4-5 days prior to Russian attacks in the forest. The Kyslivka group is bigger, so the Russians may need to spend a bit more time to soften up Ukrainian defenses, but nonetheless, it looks like the Russians expect to gradually resume their offensive actions here somewhere next week. Ukrainian analysts, in turn, suggest that even if the Russians turn the whole northern part into a combat zone, it will have virtually no effect on the ability of the Ukrainians to defend their positions down the line. First of all, Ukrainian positions in Kyslivka are too far from Petropavlivka to create any threat of encirclement or additional lines of attacks, which means that they will be dealing with the same type of attacks that they experienced over the last several months. Secondly, Kupiansk is not the only logistical hub in the region, as many troops and equipment get delivered to Kupians Vuzlovyi – a town located 3 km south of Kupiansk. Thirdly, there are multiple roads that connect the Kyslivka group with the secondary logistical hubs, which ensures that the Ukrainians won’t just run out of ammunition and step back. The only real problem is that some Ukrainian troops will be fixed in Kupiansk, and there will be fewer available reserves in case reinforcements are needed, but this number will be proportional to the number of soldiers that the Russians devote to this operation, which in this case should offset one another.