18 Dec: Russians RAN OUT OF TROOPS to Storm Opytne

General

Day 298: December 18One of the hottest parts of the front line right now is the Bakhmut area, and today a lot of good and bad news is coming exactly from this region.First of all, the Russians attempted to expand the area under their control to the south of Bakhmut. Yesterday, the Russians claimed that they had crossed the canal and advanced westward from Ozarianivka and Kurdiumivka. Geolocated footage posted the same day showed that Russian forces indeed had made marginal advances west of Ozaranivka and took control of some trenches. If we look closer, we can see that there are two areas where they can cross the canal with no problems. So, according to this news, the Russians established control over this triangle and set conditions for advances along the ravine towards Bila Hora. However, today, the Ukrainians have conducted a counterattack in this region and reportedly pushed the Russians back to the other side of the canal. Russian Ministry of defense only noted that attacks to the south of Bakhmut were repelled, but some even Russian sources say otherwise.Secondly, the Russians conducted an extensive attack on Klishchiivka. Here, the Russians made two simultaneous attacks to the north and south of the settlements in an attempt to exploit a possible lack of coordination. So far, I have only seen unofficial and unconfirmed reports. Ukrainian sources suggest that the Russians did not manage to cross the railway, while Russian sources say that they managed to get a toehold to the north by taking control of the train station. If we zoom in, we can see that this train station consists of a tiny building that is located on the other side of the rails, meaning Ukrainian and Russian reports do not conflict with one another, and the Russians might indeed be present to the north of the settlement. However, it is too far of a stretch to call this one isolated building a toehold. Taking a train station in a big town is a significant victory because the train stations there are big and provide good cover. Taking a train station near a tiny village is usually a liability.When it comes to Opytne, the intensity of the fights here temporarily decreased. According to a Ukrainian volunteer serviceman, the reason for that is that Wagner Group forces lost a lot of troops and are in dire need of fresh troops. Intense fights have been taking place for a very long time, and in order to reach a reasonable milestone by the end of the year, the Wagners have been pushing, irrespective of the losses. It seems like, at some point, many assault units have just lost their combat capability due to extensive losses, and they were forced to put further operations on hold in order to at least preserve their current positions. The Ukrainian serviceman also noted that the Wagners will either be reinforced by conventional Russian servicemen, such as marine detachments from the Vuhledar area, or by Wagner forces from other regions. Regarding the progress, the latest reports suggest that the Russians still have not passed the church in the southern part of the settlement, meaning that the Ukrainians are still holding their positions tightly.When it comes to the eastern side of Bakhmut, last time, I told you that the Russians crossed the pond and established control over several streets. There are still no confirmed updates, so even the Institute for the Study of War concluded that the Russians likely do not have a presence on this side of the pond. This is in line with other development in this part of the region because the Russians reportedly lost the fight for the Champaign Winery and Siniat factory in the industrial area and had to step back. The closest Russian positions to the city, therefore, are near this isolated warehouse to the south of the industrial area.

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