Day 359: February 17Today a lot of vital changes happened in the Bakhmut region. Here, after the Ukrainians conducted a counterattack, the Head of the Wagner forces said in an interview that the situation is very challenging and that they won’t be able to take Bakhmut for at least several more months. But interestingly, a much bigger role here played an essential betrayal of the Russian Generals.Last time, I told you that the Russians devoted a significant amount of resources to expanding control to the north of Bakhmut. I also clarified that the Russians have not encircled Paraskoviivka and that the Ukrainians still control the situation and have enough room for a controlled withdrawal, which they would likely conduct the moment the Russians break through the primary line of trenched along the highway. And this is exactly what happened today. Today at night, the Russians managed to push the Ukrainians out of the proximate tree belts, which shifted their defense toward the forest area. This forest area was basically the last cover that the Ukrainians could use to withdraw from Paraskoviivka. After rebuffing subsequent Russian attacks, the Ukrainians took advantage of the tactical pause and left Paraskoviivka. Several hours ago, various Russian sources started publishing photos that confirmed that Paraskoviivka had changed hands. This once again shows that the Ukrainians exert a lot of control over the situation, which allows them to continuously escape Russian cauldrons. Nonetheless, the situation here has undoubtedly deteriorated. The next Ukrainian line of defense goes through Dubovo-Vasylivka and Berkhivka. If we look at the topographic map, we will also see that the Ukrainians control the hills right above these two villages. This means that the Ukrainians can leverage the tree belts and forest areas to prevent the Russians from assaulting the villages. And this is exactly what they are doing. The Ukrainians are holding trenches on the hills, which allowed them to rebuff all Russian attacks towards Dubovo-Vasylivka. However, Russian successes in Paraskoviivka have been offset by their losses in the southern part of the region. As you remember, the Ukrainians here conducted a counterattack and pushed the Russians around 1.5 km back. Today Russian sources finally confirmed this information as well and expressed concern that this was only the first wave. And it looks like it is true because yesterday, the Ukrainians conducted a rotation of all troops in this region and are also moving in several additional fresh battalions. The intensification of air reconnaissance which is mainly conducted by drones, also signals that the Ukrainians are analyzing Russian defenses in the forest. And the fact that the Ukrainians started using their aviation more frequently signals that it will highly likely be engaged during the counterattack. But this is not the only reason why the Battle for Bakhmut is far from being finished. What is interesting, yesterday, the Head of the Wagner forces, Prigozhin, said that they are facing huge challenges and that the Ukrainians will continue holding Bakhmut not only till the anniversary of the war in February but also likely through the whole of March and maybe even April. He essentially said that the Russian Ministry of Defense tried to make Wagners fail because they banned further recruitment of prisoners and they do not provide them with enough resources. A day before this interview, footage appeared showing how Wagner forces were asking the Ministry of Defense to urgently give them ammunition. The main reason why the Russian Ministry of Defense is purposefully degrading the most capable Russian units is the following – in the absence of their own achievements and in the light of a series of catastrophic operations near Vuhledar, Wagners simply make them look bad. Wagner forces use a decentralized command, while regular Russian units use centralized command. Russian generals do not want to implement decentralization because it takes away their power. That is why all alternative structures are deemed expendable and are kept small.