Day 327: January 16Today a series of explosions were reported in southern Ukraine. The Russian-appointed Head of Crimea said that Russian air defense was activated along the entire western shore. As it turned out, the Ukrainians have launched swarms of kamikaze drones to target Russian bases. And after the Russians removed their aircraft from the airfields in Kherson due to constant HIMARS strikes, Russian airfields in Crimea have plenty of targets. The Ukrainians are hunting down Russian aviation for two reasons: firstly, to decrease the number of airstrikes on the front line, where they usually use fighter jets and helicopters, and, secondly, to decrease the number of bombers that are used to launch missiles and target Ukrainian critical infrastructure. And in order to achieve this goal, the Ukrainians launched two waves of drone attacks.The first wave of attacks was launched at 6 am. What is interesting, the trajectory was rather sophisticated, which indicates that the Ukrainians have already created a very elaborate map of Russian air defense systems. Previously, the trajectory was rather linear, and almost all drones were sent directly to Sevastopol and Saky. However, it looks like the Russians adjusted and concentrated their air defense on the most western part of the peninsula. In order to avoid it, the Ukrainians sent their drones between Kherson and Crimea and then adjusted their trajectory and moved towards Sevastopol. This way, the Russians shoot down significantly fewer objects, increasing the chances of hitting the targets. In order to increase their chances even more, the second wave is used.The second swarm of drones was launched at 7 am. The drones followed the same route with certain corrections. Using the same route ensures that the drones pass by the air defense that is already empty after trying to shoot down the first wave of drones. And this proved to be extremely successful. If the first wave did not manage to cross the peninsula at all, then the second wave managed to get extremely close to the Saky airfield, Belbel airfield, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.In this attack, the Ukrainians reportedly used Mugin-5 drones that could bombard the target with explosives. Unlike Bayraktar, Mugin-5 cannot carry rockets, but it still has a notable carrying capacity of 25 kg, which can inflict severe damage to the aircraft stationed on the airfield.And when it comes to the airfields in Crimea, the number of potential targets there is expected to increase. Due to the constant artillery duels that are taking place in Kherson, Ukrainian Intelligence noted that the Russians made a decision to decrease the concentration of their aircraft even more. Shortly after that, satellite footage showed that the number of helicopters in Berdyansk had increased, and, on top of that, the Russians were rapidly working on equipping the airfield, likely in preparation for more frequent use. Even though Berdyansk is not in Crimea, it is one of the very few Russian airfields in the south that are out of reach of HIMARS. That is why the utilization of Crimean bases is inevitable.Nonetheless, this time the drones were reportedly shot down in the vicinity of the Russian bases, and none of them hit any valuable targets. However, it looks like the goal of this strike was a bit different. Russian analysts are warning that the Ukrainians have likely used these cheap commercial, poorly equipped drones for evaluation of the situation. Once they identify the most current positions of air defense systems, they will be able to determine even less protected areas and launch the more dangerous drones. That is why the intensity of strikes in Crimea is expected to increase.