Day 296: December 16Today the Russians conducted yet another massive missile strike in an attempt to shut down the Ukrainian energy system. What is interesting is that this is the second time in a row that the Russians launched only around 70 rockets. This is almost two times less than they had been using in autumn. As you remember, the weakness of the previous strike was explained by the fact that Ukrainian forces struck Russian airfields several hours prior to the launch of the rockets. But this time, no such preventative action took place, so the weakness of this missile strike indicates that Russian airfields indeed suffered a lot, which explains why they started using aircraft that they had never used before. This is also the first time that one of the missiles they launched never even made it to Ukraine and crashed on Russian territory. The Kh-101 rocket fell in the Volgograd region.Overall, the Russians have launched 76 missiles, while Ukrainian air defense intercepted 60 missiles, which implies an 80% success rate. Ukrainian Defense Minister stated that the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense increased by 30% since these missile strikes began, which is quite a lot. He said that it increased from 50% at the beginning of the war to 80% in December. According to the minister, Ukraine used a combination of air defense systems donated by partners, Soviet-era systems, and repurposed mobile machine guns.Judging by the decreasing intensity of these missile strikes, the biggest problem for the Russians is not Ukrainian air defense, the biggest problems are internal. Today the Spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russia launched Tu-95 from Engels airfield for the first time. He said in an interview that the Russians used everything they had except for Iranian kamikaze drones. They raised Tu-95, SU-35, and MIG-31, which has never happened before.The Russians understand that with fewer rockets, the chances of overwhelming Ukrainian air defense are very low. That is why in order to compensate for the decreased number of launches, the Russians tried to concentrate their efforts on only three regions: Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhia. Out of 76 missiles, around 40 targeted Kyiv, 15 targeted Dnipro and Zaporizhia, and 10 targeted Kharkiv.The main idea of hitting Kyiv is to destroy all Thermal Power Plants and cause a prolonged and freezing blackout to raise public discontent, which would create internal pressure on Zelensky to negotiate. The main idea of hitting Kharkiv is to worsen Ukrainian logistics that heavily rely on electric trains, and given that Kharkiv is one of the main hubs of Ukrainian forces, the impact is definitely being felt. The main idea of hitting Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro is to prevent the Ukrainians from concentrating a critical amount of forces in this region that would allow them to take offensive actions. That is why they are targeting here not only power plants and substations but also crucial railway connections.Overall, the Russians failed to inflict significant damage. Even though the Ukrainian energy system suffered a lot during these three months, the blackouts today were very mild. Mild missile strikes are also working in favor of Ukrainian air defense, as it does not get overwhelmed, which means that the system learns better and ensures an even higher success rate in the future. In response to the Russian missile strike, Western partners announced another help package in an attempt to restore damaged Ukrainian energy facilities and boost its air defense.If you live in the United Kingdom, European Union or Norway, then you can finally make a purchase in the online store UA Supporter. We finally launched shipping to these regions, so if you want to buy some products with Ukrainian symbols, click the link in the description, and fill the basket with nice clothes and accessories in my online store.