12 Jan: Not So Fast! Russians RAN INTO A FORTIFIED EMBANKMENT | War in Ukraine Explained

General

Day 323: January 12The most intense fights continue to take place in Soledar. Today the front line here evened out, and the Ukrainians established their next defense line along the railways. This new defense line leverages the local geography and creates a series of natural obstacles that are expected to slow down the pace of Russian advancement. Nonetheless, this defense line is not perfect, and here is why.Last time I told you that the Ukrainians have retreated from the central part of Soledar to the west in order to escape the imminent encirclement. The encirclement was imminent because, after the fall of Yakovlivka, the Russians gained access to the local heights and, despite the Ukrainian’s efforts, gradually expanded it around Soledar. I also told you that I do not expect the Ukrainians to hold the second salt mine area for too long because it is very hard to deliver supplies there, as many segments of the roads leading to this industrial area are under Russian fire control. Today, the Ukrainians stepped back to the third salt mine area, supporting my analysis. The evidence of the further retreat served a footage posted by the Wagner forces where they have been walking through the streets slightly to the north of the salt mines. The main Ukrainian defense line right now goes through the Sil station and the third salt mine. The concentration of the Ukrainian forces to the north of Soledar has increased. Apart from holding the last two positions in Soledar, which are the salt mine and Sil station, the Ukrainians are trying to build their defense line along the railways. There are advantages and disadvantages to holding this line. On the one hand, the Ukrainians are stopping the front line from the collapse, which means that the Russians still have to fight for each and every defensive position, and nothing is given away for free. The Ukrainians established their positions along the railway embankment, and embankments proved to be a significant impediment in this war. The settlements are also not too sparsely located, which allows having more covered positons and small warehouses with ammunition and supplies. On the other hand, the Russians are still controlling the heights, which allows them to have a lot of supply roads under fire control. In general, this defense line serves as a great impediment on the technical level, although it gives no significant advantages on the tactical level.As of now, the Russians are preparing to attack Krasna Hora and Parakoviivka. They reportedly got quite close to these settlements, allowing them to establish direct fire control over some segments of the important supply roads. Some sources say that the Russians deployed their airborne forces for these specific tasks, not the Wagners. The Russians previously were not able to advance on Krasna Hora from the east, which is why they focused more on Pidhorodne, but now, with Pidhorodne under their control, the Russians have launched several reconnaissance groups to the south of Krasna Hora.Overall, the Battle for Soledar has almost ended. The Ukrainians gradually retreated to the next defense line and did not allow the front line to collapse. Russian forces will likely continue storming the Sil station and salt mine with the same intensity, but unlikely for too long because these positions are quite detached from the city and do not allow the block-by-block advancement while being under cover of the surrounding buildings. Hopefully, we will see stabilization of the front line in the next several days.

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