Day 316: January 05Today there are a lot of updates from the Soledar area. Here, the Russians manage to push the Ukrainians out of an important settlement and establish control over the high ground. This caused a chain reaction and forced the Ukrainians to step back from multiple positions along the front line. The Russians tried to leverage their success and develop their offensive further but faced a big problem. The Ukrainian defense line refused to collapse, and here is why.Last time, I told you that the Russians established control over Yakovlivka, which facilitated Russian attacks on Soledar and other settlements on the line. The Ukrainians tried to retake this settlement, however, even though they entered the village, they did not manage to push the Russians out completely. The Russians established their positions and were able to wait until the reinforcements arrived. If we look at the topographic map, we can see that Yakovkivka stands right above Soledar and other settlements in the region. The Ukrainians decided that retaking this high-ground position would cost more lives than if they just stepped back. However, this decision required the Ukrainians to make other structural changes to their defensive line. Previously, the Ukrainian defense line went through Yakovlivka, then gypsum formations and factory Knauf in Soledar and a local school in Bakhmutske. So, whenever the Russians tried to attack Soledar from the north, these attacks were countered from Yakovlivka. However, with Yakovlivka under their control, the residential area between the industrial areas became very vulnerable to attacks from the north. Holding the Russians off from one side was a difficult enough task, so with the attacks from the flank, the Ukrainians needed to step back. But they could not just retreat because this would give too much room for the Russians in the center to finally cut off Bakhmutske from the mainland.That is why the Ukrainians were forced to start retreating from their positions all the way from Bakhmutske. Around a week ago, geolocated footage confirmed that Wagner forces entered the local school in Bakhmutske. Soon after that, the Ukrainians left Bakhmutske almost completely. The Ukrainians are still controlling the warehouses because they are pretty much on the outskirts, and it is still possible to supply this group. Overall, the loss of Yakovlivka made the Ukrainians lose around 1 km of the ground in Soledar and Bakhmutske. However, this is where good news for the Russians ended. As the Ukrainians stepped back from the outskirts and created a buffer zone, the next Russian target inevitably became the central part of Soledar. And here, the Ukrainians have a very formidable defense. First of all, there is a salt mine with a lot of underground passages that the Ukrainians use as an ammunition depot. Secondly, there is a residential area with a lot of tall buildings that allow monitoring of the land far ahead. And lastly, even if the fights reach this area, it is full of industrial zones, which are extremely well-fortified. The Russians have been storming Soledar since summer, so the Ukrainians have definitely fortified the rear positions inside the town. That is why even Russian analysts agree that Soledar is nowhere near falling. Overall, the fighting in this area is expected to remain positional. The Russians indeed managed to increase the area under their control, but there happened to be too many natural obstacles and fortified positions down the line to generate a breakthrough and collapse the front line. Also, the fact that the Russians started relocating Wagner forces from here to defend Kreminna signals that the Russians do not plan to develop their offensive operation on Soledar in the near future, and the Ukrainian defense line is relatively safe.
05 Jan: On Time. Ukrainians STOP DEFENSE FROM COLLAPSING | War in Ukraine Explained
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