Day 315: January 04Today there are a lot of updates from the Luhansk region. Last time, I told you the Ukrainians assaulted Russian positions to the north of Dibrova. In the first stage of the operation, the Ukrainians managed to reduce Russian control around Dibrova significantly, but when the fighting got close to their main base, moving forward became much more difficult, as the Russians here had more established positions and better supplies. Besides, the only area under Russian control basically remained the forests, so the Ukrainians could not generate rapid breakthroughs here with their mobile units. That is why the fights became positional, engaging only infantry, artillery, and aviation.The deteriorating weather conditions also played a role. The Ukrainians here waited for the drop in temperature to conduct this offensive operation, but it seems like several days in, the temperature rebounded, and there was rain, followed by several days of above-zero temperature. Luckily, the Ukrainian offensive did not suffer as much as it could. The reason why the Ukrainian offensive did not fail is that they managed to push the Russians from the fields. So, the Ukrainians used the fields while they could, gained some ground, and secured their positions along the forest, and after that, the forest battle started, where the Ukrainians could not use their cars anyway, regardless of whether it was rainy or not.Still, as you can imagine, even in the forest, dry weather is preferable for the offensive operation. That is why the offensive operation has inadvertently slowed down but not stopped. During these humid conditions, both the Ukrainians and the Russians started to rely on artillery and aviation more heavily. According to a Russian source, the Ukrainians have around 1500 servicemen constantly storming Russian positions. According to Military Land, the Ukrainians have deployed the 45th artillery brigade to the Svatove region, which is, to a large extent, focused on the area of the main action – Kreminna. Additionally, to provide air support to ground troops, the Ukrainians continue engaging tactical aircraft Su-27 and MiG-29 from the airfield in northern Ukraine.The Russians seem to have slowly given in to the pressure. Ukrainian Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate reported that Ukrainian forces have advanced 2.5 km in the direction of Kreminna over the past week and are continuing offensive actions towards the settlement. Later, a social media post claimed that Ukrainian forces captured Dibrova. There was no official confirmation of the Ukrainians entering this village, so the post was disregarded, however, when several days later Russian Ministry of Defense reported about hunting down Ukrainian artillery around Dibrova, it became obvious that the Russians had left it. This doesn’t mean that the Ukrainians have entered it, it looks like it is a grey zone that no party can occupy due to the overwhelming fire. Additionally, a reserve officer and military analyst indirectly confirmed that the Russians left Dibrova by saying that the Ukrainians are operating less than 5 km away from Kreminna.Other Russian sources are largely indicating that the Battle for Kreminna has almost started. A BARS-13-affiliated source claimed that Ukrainian forces are preparing to attack Kreminna from three directions. Another Russian source said that they are expecting a Ukrainian counteroffensive operation once the ground freezes in the area, which is forecasted to drop below zero in 2 days and stay below zero for more than a month. Some sources also emphasize that the Ukrainians are even preparing the infrastructure to supply and support the stormtroopers by erecting additional pontoon crossings southwest of Kreminna.