Day 346: February 04At first, it was expected that the Russians would launch their offensive operation when the rainy spring season ends, which is late April. This would be sensible because it leaves a large window for developing an offensive operation. However, the Russians changed their plans after Western countries started discussing their plans to supply Ukraine with tanks, artillery, and armored vehicles.Today a Ukrainian intelligence official stated that the Russian President ordered the Russian military to capture Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March. This is consistent with other news, such as that Russian authorities ordered the only mobile cell service provider in the Luhansk region to suspend mobile internet coverage starting on 11 February. All of this indicates that the Russians plan to start their offensive operation within one week, and their place of choice is the Luhansk region. And if we look at the weather forecast, we can see that the weather should be cold and dry for around 1 month, setting good conditions for offensive actions.The main goal of the Russians is to reach the Oskil River before the return of the muddy weather. Some Russian analysts are calling it a rectification operation because this is where the Russians were supposed to stop after being defeated in the Kharkiv region. The fact that the Ukrainians did not stop and continued pushing in the Luhansk region once again proved to be a smart move because now the Russians needed to dedicate a whole offensive operation just to set conditions for the next move. Ideally for the Russians, they need to take Bakhmut and Siversk and reach the Oskil River by spring, and after the rainy period, they need to launch another offensive operation to take Izium and then crush the biggest Ukrainian defense line from two sides because taking it from just one side may cost them more than they have.However, in order to reach the Oskil River, the Russians need to take Siversk. Siversk allows the Ukrainians to supply their assault units in the forest, which doesn’t allow the Russians even to cross the Zherebets River. That is why the Ukrainians are continuing to push here, despite the fact that advancing here proved to be very difficult – it takes a considerable amount of time and resources to cross each natural barrier, so by just maintaining control over this small section of the Zherebets River’s eastern bank, the Ukrainians put a stick in the wheel of the whole rectification operation. That is why the Russians are trying to breach the Ukrainian defense on the hills near Siversk.However, a lot of Russian troops are fixed around Bakhmut. The Russians cannot stop attacking it because they will lose all their progress, and they cannot advance here rapidly because it is one of the most well-fortified towns in Ukraine. That is why the Ukrainians are not leaving Bakhmut. The Ukrainians are fixing a substantial portion of forces and delaying the Russian offensive operation.And this is a big problem for the Russians because they keep rewriting their plans. That is why the Russians decided to assault almost all settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region. First of all, they wanted to breach the Ukrainian defense at least somewhere, and secondly, they wanted the Ukrainian command to panic and relocate troops from the east to Zaporizhzhia. But the Ukrainians managed to hold their defense in the south without compromising their defense in the east, which is why Bakhmut still stands, which is why Siversk still stands, which is why the Russians cannot reach the Zherebets River and set conditions for the rectification operation.