Day 281: December 01One of the hottest parts of the front line right now is the Bakhmut area. Here the Russians are launching one assault after another to the south of Bakhmut in an attempt to complete the encirclement operation and force the Ukrainians inside the city to capitulate.Today we have received confirmations that the Russians eventually took control of Kurdiumivka, Zelenopillia, and Andriivka and started developing their operation further. Some sources already indicate that the Russians broke through the next Ukrainian defensive line to advance towards Chasiv Yar, which would cut one of the two main Ukrainian ground lines of communication to Bakhmut. However, even though some of these facts are true, the situation is not as dire as it seems, and here is why.Two days ago, I told you that because the Russians established control over the crucial high-ground position in Mayorsk, they managed to step by step undermine the Ukrainian defense in Ozarianivka and Kurdiumivka. I also said that the Ukrainians might be able to preserve Kurdiumivka, especially given that the Ukrainians reinforced this region, however, it seems like that reinforcement did not get on time, and the Ukrainians were forced to retreat from Kurdiumivka and Zelenopillia. Given that a small village Andriivka also fell, the front line shifted approximately 3 km west.Some sources are saying that the Russians are finally ready to cut one of the main supply roads to the southwest of Bakhmut by taking Ivanivske, or they are going to encircle Toretsk by moving towards Bila Hora. However, in reality, the Russians do not have enough resources for such attacks.Let’s start by taking a look at the topographic map. Over the last week, the Russians have been on a winning streak because they gained a local tactical advantage. They took Mayorsk, and then by leveraging the heights, they were slowly moving downhill on Kurdiumivka. If the Russians indeed want to implement the first scenario and take Ivanivske, then the Russians would again need to go uphill, as Chasiv Yar is located high above the ground, around 35 meters above Kurdiumivka. This means that they are in direct fire control. Secondly, if we switch to the satellite view, we can see that there are a lot of ravines, tree belts, and forests on their way to Ivanisvke. This means that they would necessarily get stuck in front of each of them while being in direct fire control and artillery aim. Thirdly, Ivanisvke is a big village in the lowlands, which means that it is a perfect slaughterhouse.Some say that they may still cut the connection by establishing control over Klischivka, however, there are a lot of problems with this idea as well. Firstly, it is in the lowlands, so they will not be able to see the road and have direct fire control unless they step into the fields. And if they step into fields, they themselves become easy targets. But even if they decide that it is worth it, the Ukrainians have plenty of other roads in the back of Bakhmut. That is why this city is such a tough target – its supply roads are virtually unreachable, especially from the south.If the Russians want to implement the second scenario and take Bila Hora, they will face a lot of problems as well. As you can see, the Ukrainians in Toretsk have a lot of Terikons near the coal mines, which stand up to 80 meters above the ground. The city itself is also not in the lowlands, just like Chasiv Yar. Bila Hora is only 8 km away from Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, so every Russian move will be in direct vision. This means that it will be virtually impossible to defend these positions from counterattacks, let alone supply this group.Overall, we can see that small tactical gains did not give the Russians an absolute advantage. The Institute for the Study of War stated that in their estimation, Russian forces around Bakhmut are unlikely to place Bakhmut under threat of imminent encirclement rapidly. They also said that there is no evidence that Russian forces currently threaten key Ukrainian logistics lines.If you are against the invasion of Ukraine and want to support the work that I am doing, consider making a purchase in the online store UA Supporter. Here you can find a lot of products with Ukrainian symbols, to not only show your support for this channel, but also for Ukraine.Shop the Reporting from Ukraine store