On February 5, the last remaining strategic arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, New START, is set to expire. The treaty, which entered into force on February 5, 2011, limits the size of U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces and includes a range of verification measures, such as data exchanges and notifications, onsite inspections, and a biannual Bilateral Consultative Commission. Russia suspended its formal participation in New START in February 2023 but announced that it would continue to observe the treaty’s quantitative limits. The treaty’s imminent expiration marks an inflection point for U.S.-Russia bilateral arms control—and for arms control more broadly. With New START’s expiration, how will U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals evolve and what are the implications for U.S. and global security? What comes next for arms control in a post-New START world? And how can strategic risks be reduced in an increasingly multipolar nuclear environment? To discuss these questions and more, please join the CSIS Defense and Security Department’s HTK Series for a conversation featuring Heather Williams, director of the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues, Tom Karako, director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project, and Kari Bingen, director of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project. This event is made possible by general support to CSIS.
Summary
On February 5, the New START treaty between the United States and Russia is scheduled to expire. This agreement, which became active in 2011, established limits on strategic nuclear forces for both nations and included verification mechanisms such as data exchanges, notifications, onsite inspections, and a biannual Bilateral Consultative Commission. Although Russia suspended its formal participation in February 2023, it stated it would continue to adhere to the treaty's quantitative restrictions. The impending expiration represents a significant turning point for bilateral arms control and the broader landscape of strategic stability.
The event explores how nuclear arsenals might evolve without this framework and assesses the implications for U.S. and global security in a post-New START environment. Discussion focuses on future directions for arms control within an increasingly multipolar nuclear world and strategies to mitigate associated risks. The conversation features Heather Williams, Tom Karako, and Kari Bingen from the Center for Strategic & International Studies. As a nonpartisan think tank, CSIS aims to provide bipartisan solutions to global challenges through this series of virtual events supported by general contributions.
