For the past three years, I’ve argued that China could invade Taiwan by 2027. After watching the war with Iran unfold, I’m no longer convinced. In this video, I break down five reasons Beijing may postpone an invasion: America’s largely untouched stockpile of anti-ship weapons, China’s loss of TikTok as an influence weapon, the demonstrated power of Joint All-Domain Operations, China’s growing oil vulnerability, and the failure of major powers to translate military victories into successful political outcomes. Russia, Israel and the United States have all discovered that starting a war is much easier than finishing one. China hasn’t fought a major conflict since 1979—and Xi Jinping must now decide whether Taiwan is worth making the same mistake.

Source: Iran Changed China’s Taiwan Invasion Plans