Can Ukraine survive another winter of Russian attacks—or can Moscow turn blackouts into political pressure?
Russia’s strikes on Ukraine’s power grid threaten more than electricity. When temperatures drop, damaged substations and transformers can disrupt heating, water supplies, communications and the systems that keep entire cities functioning.
In this video, I examine Ukraine’s prospects for the winter of 2026–2027, Russia’s apparent strategy of wearing down civilian resilience, and the air-defense math behind Ukraine’s fight to keep the lights on.
My assessment: Ukraine will probably endure as a functioning, resisting state. The harder question is what condition it will be in by spring—and whether its partners provide the support it needs to withstand the campaign.
This video draws on public reporting and an assessment owned by ObscureIQ. Requests for access to that assessment must go directly to ObscureIQ and are subject to its vetting. Scenario probabilities discussed are analytical judgments, not statistical forecasts.
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Source: Ryan McBeth
