Drawing arrows on a map is easy. Getting an army across the border, keeping it supplied, and surviving the counterattack takes a little more work.
Fern’s “How Would a War With Russia Unfold?” presents a dramatic scenario involving a Russian invasion of the Baltics and NATO’s response. In this video, I go through its claims and explain where I think the analysis breaks down.
Where does Russia get the troops? What assumptions sit behind the RAND wargame? How does American equipment already stored in Europe change reinforcement? And why does counting submarines tell you so little about how many can actually fight in the Atlantic?
We’ll also examine drones, railway sabotage, the Suwalki corridor, Kaliningrad, and Gotland—and the NATO response that deserves more attention in this scenario.
Listing sources is a good start. Understanding what those sources actually support is the next step.
Source: Ryan McBeth
